I only bet on Victorian races. At times when Victorian horses are interstate I will offer tips at those meetings.
I have decided to share my tips, hopefully to help the normal punter win a few bucks on the weekend.
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Good luck if having a punt and remember to gamble responsibly.
Melbourne Cup Horse Racing Tips Tuesday 2nd November 2010
Keep a close watch on track bias if the track stays heavy, the rail is out 3mtrs the entire circuit. You will need to go wide for multiples and in the cup pool money together with mates if need be to try and land a large trifecta or first 4, and also the quadrella which will all pay very well.
Race 1 – $100,000 AGL Solar Power Stakes (LISTED) 1000mtrs – 10.20am
The best to do here is watch the markets very closely, see where the money is going. On breeding for wet and sprint No 10 Haraka Sana $13 (barrier 16) both her mum and dad could sprint and handled the wet. No 14 Star of Coureuse $5.50 and No 2 Manor Lady $21 as well but watch markets.
Race 2 – $100,000 Schiavello Plate1700mtrs – 11.00am
No 13 Status Quo (barrier15) $8 is second up and will handle the track and the wet. Was doing best work late to the line last start and will be much fitter here. No 1 Belscenica $8 will handle the wet but weight and barrier against her. No 4 Royal Commands $12 won well last start and will have trained on. No 10 Ipioga $16 is also light and should handle the track, has had plenty of time to train on since his first up run and will be very fit. No 9 Tio Rossa $11 has the runs under her belt and working home well late last two starts. No 2 Vintedge $7.50 and No 8 Manilla Jewel $17 both handle the wet.
Race 3 – $100,000 The Lavazza Long Black 2800mtrs – 11.45am
No 15 Montahlia will enjoy the wet track and the distance and I think an excellent chance here. No 9 Muir has slowly built up the distance this preparation and last start was running well with not a lot of luck. No 7 I’m Imposing ran a very good first race in Australia for a nice win. No 5 Miles Above is running well and No 1 Kerdem for multiples.
Race 4 - $150,000 Herald Sun Stakes (LISTED) 1400mtrs – 12.30pm
No 15 Devils Arcade $4.40 comes across from Sydney in the Gai Waterhouse stable. Is out of Snowland who was smart and good on wet tracks and she did win at Warwick Farm 2 starts back on the heavy 8 over 1400mtrs. No 8 Flying Tessie $10 (no jockey nominated yet) returned with a solid run coming from last and got head to the side which didn’t help to just go down.
Race 5 - $125,000 Schweppes Tonic 1000 1000m – 01.15pm
No 2 Stirling Grove $4.20 is out of Mossman and Kalamata, Kalamata was very handy on the wet and this horse has a very good turn of foot. No 3 Sleepers $6.50 has been solid over 1000mtrs and in the wet, he is out of Canny Lad who won the Golden Slipper on a heavy track. Sleepers should handle the wet and has good speed, last start was a good hard fought win. No 7 Stravinsky Code $12 will lead and could kick away with this is on pace bias. No 12 Spurcific $8 and No 4 Belfast Boy $13 for multiples as well.
Race 6 - $150,000 Lexus Hybrid Plate(LISTED) 1400m – 02.00pm
No 4 Life is a Cabernet $31 will be better for her last race and is sure to have trained on, her dad Barley a Moment was a very good wet tracker. No 3 Alotta Spur $5 all has 3 very solid runs back from the spell and one to just forget. Last two runs have been excellent after being freshened for 79 days. No 6 Palomores $3.50 (barrier 16) needs to be respected even though the horrible barrier, is a smart horse and with luck will give this a shake. No 9 Dance of the Ocean $7 really worked home well coming from the tail of the field.
Race 7 - $6,000,000 Emirates Melbourne Cup( GROUP 1) 3200m – 03.00pm
The race that stops the nation. It is hard to go past No 3 So You Think $3.50, drew a great barrier and the way he won the Mackinnon is impressive. They said he would sit off the pace and did and then just strode up to them and went to the line easily. The only worry will be horses going hard to try and get across to the rail but So You Think is a very good horse. No 8 Americain $12 the French invader won the Geelong Cup well and look at the form coming into this race is going very well and will be in the race a long way. No 12 Harris Tweed $21 the wetter the better for him. Has been rock solid back from the spell and is sure to be right in this if it stays wet. No 11 Descarado $13 from Waterhouse is out of High Chaparral (6 starts for 6 wins), ran a very solid race against So You Think in the Mackinnon to finish 2nd. No 24 Maluckyday $10 won impressively in the 2500mtr The Lexus G3, was impressive and will have to see how he handles the track but should be fine being a Zabeel. No 5 Illustrious Blue $41 is a solid stayer and has Boss on board.
At the moment I am looking at the trifecta around these numbers:
First – 3,8,11,12,24
Second – 3,5,8,11,12,24
Third - 3,4,5,7,8,11,12,15,24. This would cost $175 a full unit.
Race 8 - $150,000 Bundaberg Distilling Company Stakes (LISTED) 1800mtrs – 03.50pm
No 6 Leica Larrikin $5.50 comes into this race with some hard runs under his belt, has done well against Kallogg, Doubtful Jack and Captain Sonador, will handle the wet and is 2 wins from 2 starts at 1800mtrs. No 10 Hidden Wonder $7.50 (ex Victorian horse) comes across from Sydney in very good form, handles the wet and is running very well. No 1 Our Lukas $7.50 has a big weight but can carry it and also likes the wet. For multiples No 3 Conquering $12, No 4 Fanjura $7.50 and No 2 Rock Kingdom $7.
Race 9 - $100,000 MSS Security Sprint 1200mtrs - 04.35pm
No 18 The Handsome One $5.90 is a Shamardal and handles the wet, won his trial on October 12th in good time and will be hard to beat. No 6 True Persuasion $4.90 is the favourite and last two starts against Hay List and Black Caviar Australia’s two best sprinters have both been solid. No 4 Coup Align $27.50 (barrier 18) the barrier isn’t good but this horse has speed and should handle the wet as his dad Align won both his starts on a heavy track. No 12 Trim $29 (barrier 17) also a bad barrier but running well and being out of Lonhro will handle the track. For multiples go wide with No 5 Latin News $39.10 and No 1 Royal Ida $38.
Race 10 - $100,000 Celebrating 50 Years Handicap 1400mtrs – 05.15pm
No 16 Testapal $11.60 could be a good outsider here, will need to step up a little but handles the wet. No 4 Amaethon $11.30 has two good runs back from the spell and on breeding should handle the wet track. No 13 Lexcen $26.50 is another outsider with good form on the wet. No 1 Belavan $4.20 favourite is 5 starts for 5 wins and this by far the hardest task but must respect. No 3 Overtake $9.90 likes the wet and will be very fit here. For multiples No 5 Launay $15.50 and No 9 Alpharari $59.50.
For quadrella players, pool your money and go wide. It is the best way to have a chance at winning a big dividend.
My quadrella numbers I am looking around are:
Race 7 – 3, 8, 11, 12, 24
Race 8 – 1, 6, 10
Race 9 – 4, 6, 12, 18
Race 10 – 1, 3, 4, 5, 13, 16
This quadrella would cost $432 a full unit but I could still be changing these numbers depending on a number of factors.
If you want to know what I am backing, leave a comment and your email. It won’t be published and I will send through my bets and also my best multiples for the day.
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